Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC win on 2025-09-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x445d5b2f237a9df9fbe421cecb0c753b7ea7207e3922e2f35cbfeb9f320d1714
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Yes | 30c | 3,841$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,707.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 48c | 1,832$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.68 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 41c | 1,777$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.75 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 31c | 1,532$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.58 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed No | 72c | 779.82$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 65c | 740.06$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.17 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Yes | 32c | 677$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed No | 69c | 646$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.41 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 69c | 487$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.04 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 58c | 385$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.81 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 68c | 350$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 65c | 181.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…27bcbacked Yes | 34c | 150$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 67c | 31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 65c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf6…9f95backed No | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC win on 2025-09-07?this page
- Will Sporting Kansas City vs. Austin FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2025-09-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.