Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action against Iran in August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45bc827a9d9dbbff931d78001c8c1933f2663afa75fd280323e40e5b95d09e6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $242,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,347
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 212 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 9c | 20,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 68c | 10,177$6,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,306.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 5,676$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.16 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 12c | 5,582$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.69 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 5c | 5,414$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.69 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 6c | 5,342$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.35 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 17c | 4,538$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 4c | 4,002$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.48 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…0494backed No | 47c | 3,969$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.43 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 61c | 3,890$2,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.61 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed Yes | 59c | 3,677$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184.93 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed No | 75c | 2,915$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.07 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…de46backed Yes | 24c | 2,818$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.01 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 43c | 2,693$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.5 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 31c | 2,568$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780.14 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 48c | 2,293$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091.53 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…0a6ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,245$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.19 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 30c | 2,082$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.57 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…8070backed Yes | 5c | 1,978$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 54c | 1,967$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.69 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 37c | 1,904$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.35 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4780…348ebacked Yes | 57c | 1,868$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 12c | 1,711$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.05 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb067…cc17backed Yes | 62c | 1,678$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed Yes | 5c | 1,559$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…c7bcbacked Yes | 37c | 1,540$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b3…7469backed Yes | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b93…3c34backed No | 52c | 1,421$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.67 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed Yes | 37c | 1,328$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.06 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked Yes | 27c | 1,311$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…3664backed Yes | 24c | 1,305$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked No | 50c | 1,271$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.71 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed Yes | 50c | 1,190$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 57c | 1,160$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.63 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1f…9cdebacked Yes | 50c | 1,134$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 31c | 1,128$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.99 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 75c | 1,001$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.15 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked No | 58c | 1,000$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.05 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd993…844abacked Yes | 31c | 980.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 23cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d24…d227backed No | 64c | 933$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 56c | 887.01$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.78 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f5…1d41backed Yes | 16c | 868.47$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.77 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…6c3abacked Yes | 59c | 845.05$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 2c | 825.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…36d5backed Yes | 49c | 812.24$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bef…5d3dbacked No | 40c | 757.1$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…237abacked Yes | 21c | 714.74$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…7415backed No | 60c | 681.69$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…c24fbacked No | 57c | 659.12$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.67 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 5c | 658.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 24c | 651.66$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.19 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 4c | 614$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…746abacked No | 55c | 575$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.75 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd91b…4e2bbacked Yes | 38c | 531.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 59c | 512.77$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.45 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…c01bbacked Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…6fa3backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948e…92b5backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed Yes | 55c | 496.52$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db4…d1d3backed Yes | 43c | 468.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad5…02febacked No | 37c | 452.78$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 68c | 429.99$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7012…14a4backed Yes | 62c | 412.58$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e66…8c05backed Yes | 62c | 410.09$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 11c | 410$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 61c | 398.42$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.36 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -87%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed No | 55c | 362.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.99 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…6901backed Yes | 74c | 337.84$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…73eebacked Yes | 9c | 335$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4481…e934backed Yes | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb677…46f6backed Yes | 71c | 324.39$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…f637backed Yes | 56c | 321.42$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 41c | 315$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…a52abacked No | 33c | 305.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +143.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 47c | 300$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…2ce6backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 64c | 299.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…93e7backed Yes | 73c | 291.88$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8540…e24fbacked Yes | 48c | 285$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 62c | 283.51$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 62c | 280.4$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.85 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…1bd0backed Yes | 11c | 273$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5143…432ebacked Yes | 65c | 247.56$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed No | 56c | 239.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 50c | 237.85$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 76c | 237.21$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 61c | 224.79$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked No | 37c | 218.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.13 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…b473backed Yes | 63c | 202.14$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…bbf8backed Yes | 50c | 201.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7f…be25backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…8ae2backed No | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed No | 48c | 199.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.99 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5175…a4f6backed Yes | 44c | 195$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.