Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
North Dakota State vs. South Dakota
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45ccbd46879f8dcbbc76f2e5076fe6b3993be160038569b68f60bb84213e903f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Dakota Stateof North Dakota State, South Dakota
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed South Dakota | 37c | 30,526$11,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,253.73 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed North Dakota State | 57c | 12,164$6,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,197.76 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed North Dakota State | 62c | 12,000$7,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,520 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed North Dakota State | 73c | 5,631$4,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.66 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…140ebacked North Dakota State | 29c | 318$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8a…cf13backed South Dakota | 71c | 164$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…9e74backed North Dakota State | 29c | 143$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…70adbacked South Dakota | 71c | 143$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca8…a7a5backed South Dakota | 71c | 137$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…5a61backed North Dakota State | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d4…2aa7backed North Dakota State | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde83…6e4abacked North Dakota State | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…908cbacked North Dakota State | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8504…fd60backed South Dakota | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…d19fbacked North Dakota State | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8069…e00abacked North Dakota State | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff8…2d25backed South Dakota | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5971…eba4backed North Dakota State | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d91…e6a4backed North Dakota State | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…2bf6backed North Dakota State | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…c465backed South Dakota | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…ef24backed South Dakota | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0027…6518backed South Dakota | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…7819backed South Dakota | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…e80cbacked South Dakota | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb842…9ad8backed South Dakota | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…1ca0backed South Dakota | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…8bd7backed South Dakota | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…8698backed South Dakota | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…4242backed South Dakota | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…9ca4backed South Dakota | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.