South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4638364cbed94d24384041e3e330556796d2356d203ae8e05c57cc611a3d339c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 56c | 380.36$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.36 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 42c | 321.78$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.53 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 223.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 56c | 153.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1b…3f5ebacked Yes | 57c | 132.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 62c | 97.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +9.7wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 43c | 83.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked Yes | 55c | 27.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Club León FC vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Club León FC win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.