CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Project 91 - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4763b0fb49a9d34bdf59f40ebf3ae7aa5e688b2208df23dcc1573de21ebdad29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- fnaticof fnatic, Project 91
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Project 91 | 27c | 1,099$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.58 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked fnatic | 75c | 518.11$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.11 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Project 91 | 5c | 259.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…7d85backed Project 91 | 42c | 229.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…2d2dbacked fnatic | 55c | 206.62$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed fnatic | 59c | 172.89$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 275 | 56.4%155 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf349…3398backed Project 91 | 11c | 125.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Project 91 | 16c | 88.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Project 91 | 44c | 77.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 443 | 43.3%192 W · 251 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9a…73fabacked fnatic | 57c | 42.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 393 | 53.2%209 W · 184 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…eb73backed fnatic | 67c | 29.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…68c9backed fnatic | 61c | 27.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 240 | 51.7%124 W · 116 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Project 91 - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Project 91 (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffsfnatic won
- Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Project 91 - Map 2 Winnerfnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.