Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 16 above $380?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48e4cc14dec935f58bfeccfde3e1610b18a7234d5bb2d4d90df6241e7203c28b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,829 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 76c | 4,113$3,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.95 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked No | 63c | 726.28$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.72 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed No | 53c | 629.16$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.72 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +42.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed No | 67c | 444.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.79 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed No | 45c | 357.78$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.14 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…65ebbacked Yes | 15c | 319.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 56c | 314.11$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.39 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x790a…47bdbacked Yes | 16c | 288.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…c90abacked Yes | 17c | 282.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679f…1718backed Yes | 17c | 276.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d9…2dfbbacked Yes | 17c | 267.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3047…88a6backed Yes | 18c | 263.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6514…b090backed Yes | 18c | 259.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe945…2582backed Yes | 18c | 258.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ca…7e2bbacked Yes | 18c | 257.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9e…56febacked Yes | 18c | 256.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7c…038fbacked Yes | 18c | 252.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc43…07d9backed Yes | 19c | 244.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…b126backed Yes | 19c | 238.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…cf93backed Yes | 29c | 167.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…ef76backed Yes | 28c | 167.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…8cc6backed Yes | 30c | 159.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…4574backed Yes | 31c | 157.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…c54bbacked Yes | 31c | 155.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…b896backed Yes | 36c | 137$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d6…e94bbacked No | 37c | 134.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…9096backed Yes | 36c | 134.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7618…dc0bbacked Yes | 42c | 111.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 17c | 106.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…cc27backed Yes | 46c | 105.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 848 | 46%390 W · 458 L | +51.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d29…0129backed Yes | 60c | 80.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…69e0backed Yes | 68c | 66.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…7a0cbacked Yes | 78c | 62.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1885…5789backed Yes | 80c | 58.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…1347backed No | 68c | 52.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 30c | 37.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d08…ee10backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 16 above $380?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 16 above $365?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 16 above $370?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 16 above $375?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 16 above $385?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 16 above $390?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 16 above $395?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 16 above $400?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 16 above $410?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 16 above $415?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 16 above $420?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.