Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x494a72cb0bc2af2175a61df47f424f0ab09749bd4b6ae30db1a30ec8df27f8ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 80c | 2,883$2,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.9 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 38c | 1,362$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.96 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 52c | 357$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 38c | 350$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…f395backed No | 65c | 216$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 16c | 164$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7f…d284backed Yes | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.