Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4984754a567ca4b8c8433d57ee045b39902cf4825922a7ac746046a65d15ee2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb169…391dbacked No | 50c | 201.63$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…026dbacked No | 50c | 198.48$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…a853backed No | 50c | 193.82$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe5…d4bfbacked No | 50c | 191.29$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa13a…b333backed No | 50c | 190.5$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…7c4dbacked No | 50c | 189.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…6c6fbacked No | 50c | 188.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe851…8395backed No | 50c | 185.06$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…57e2backed No | 50c | 184.5$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f05…b8debacked No | 50c | 183.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e7…0cebbacked No | 50c | 183.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…86f5backed No | 50c | 183.12$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…472abacked No | 50c | 179.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…3de7backed No | 50c | 179.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…d36ebacked No | 50c | 177.69$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 75c | 37.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $360 end of April?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $330 end of April?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $345 end of April?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 end of April?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of April?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of April?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.