Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Troy vs. Texas State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49a882eb4964ca5eb289a83a174929bf6af35b62ab93371f5e5a8be528a45066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Troyof Troy, Texas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Texas State | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Troy | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb42e…7f0abacked Troy | 54c | 477$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…9d04backed Texas State | 46c | 441$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe972…62bbbacked Texas State | 50c | 242$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…66aabacked Troy | 50c | 185$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…8234backed Texas State | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6140…50d2backed Troy | 54c | 82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…fcdbbacked Texas State | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef4…6df0backed Troy | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…23d3backed Troy | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d49…5798backed Troy | 54c | 63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dae…eed9backed Troy | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…923bbacked Troy | 55c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60f…7197backed Troy | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…b2f5backed Troy | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17a…c553backed Troy | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7b…464bbacked Troy | 55c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…346ebacked Texas State | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b2…0e7cbacked Texas State | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x068e…9b9ebacked Texas State | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6d…b7dabacked Texas State | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6e…7a7cbacked Texas State | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1387…61afbacked Texas State | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84d…82d9backed Troy | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf4…20b2backed Texas State | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c97…362cbacked Texas State | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f6…8923backed Texas State | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f6…8be5backed Texas State | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…d0a1backed Texas State | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c74…475cbacked Texas State | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590c…699dbacked Troy | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c2…e0d2backed Texas State | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f78…32c4backed Texas State | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1689…a4f1backed Texas State | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8252…8677backed Troy | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7e…c9c6backed Troy | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9841…f339backed Troy | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647b…13f1backed Troy | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa32f…3916backed Troy | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d3…aae8backed Troy | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.