NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Oilers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49e03bedd6e3cbc178f5ed0dfb720cbc4ee8f572096c0cc7411698ba7a5180c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Jets, Oilers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Jets | 44c | 4,384$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.18 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Oilers | 56c | 2,957$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.69 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Oilers | 56c | 589.5$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.38 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -10.5wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Oilers | 59c | 358$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.63 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Oilers | 65c | 317$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Oilers | 57c | 281$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.91 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Oilers | 56c | 240$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Oilers | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Jets | 40c | 133.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Jets | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Jets | 40c | 32.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.