South American Leagues · resolved market
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Lanús: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a338363c9c98396c5e364ac7ffef74e1e75a90de5073f2f1cc1033032b6feaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 50c | 1,407$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.25 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 1,215$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.49 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Over | 51c | 1,080$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.02 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Over | 42c | 999.98$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 52c | 759.62$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.62 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…9dacbacked Over | 47c | 648.88$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.82 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 613.77$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.3 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 49c | 608.16$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.16 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 58c | 555.62$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.26 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 53c | 344$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.32 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c8…006cbacked Under | 55c | 145.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 80c | 125.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe95…1c9fbacked Under | 21c | 97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Over | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Over | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 49c | 35.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1190…2f25backed Under | 59c | 20.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Lanús: O/U 1.5this page
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Lanús: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Lanús: O/U 3.5Over won
- CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Lanús: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: CA San Lorenzo de Almagro (-1.5)CA Lanús won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.