TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Xavier vs. Butler

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Xavierof Xavier, Butler
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,318
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,156

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,318 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29c0…efaabacked Xavier38c549.5$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.691,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Xavier62c544.5$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.0753057.4%304 W · 226 L+33.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Butler36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10842948.5%208 W · 221 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe244…1571backed Butler50c185$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec96…a5b3backed Butler48c161.19$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.37250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaa6…a1f5backed Xavier71c129$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.413100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda61…4315backed Xavier50c102$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd8b…e9f0backed Xavier52c101$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.484100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+128%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Butler40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Butler43c99.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7960551.4%311 W · 294 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f79…acc4backed Butler50c81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18b9…9aeabacked Xavier50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3e…975fbacked Butler29c66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4964…be1dbacked Xavier56c66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae1…bea5backed Butler44c63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd56d…f9a3backed Butler47c62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ac3…63e2backed Butler47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1e0…ecf6backed Xavier53c58$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.262100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaea…3bd1backed Xavier52c57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea69…9ba2backed Butler29c56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3156…d591backed Xavier50c56$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb29c…f2dabacked Butler29c54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.66333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3627…882cbacked Butler47c48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c3b…9977backed Butler50c48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f03…a152backed Butler69c47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81c4…92e3backed Butler49c44.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Butler36c44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8434842.8%149 W · 199 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6530…7db0backed Butler29c44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbb8…06b4backed Butler29c44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.76450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ee1…5040backed Xavier54c43$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+69.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb1…d84abacked Xavier50c42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519a…b66dbacked Xavier50c41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+50%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c68…5215backed Butler49c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a75…5722backed Xavier53c36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b88…d5e2backed Xavier53c34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4073…b669backed Xavier50c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22e6…6effbacked Xavier51c33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.172100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3145…0271backed Butler49c33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x346b…bcc4backed Butler50c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+44.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…4831backed Butler47c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.04250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e94…4ed6backed Butler50c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.31per pick58cpaid+55.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x77ab…56f1backed Xavier51c32$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85fa…0879backed Xavier50c31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd9…d32abacked Xavier50c31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eef…8d77backed Xavier51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…65dfbacked Xavier50c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1406…7e33backed Butler49c29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee19…da9dbacked Xavier50c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd22e…7706backed Butler50c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x717c…43bcbacked Butler50c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bc…6187backed Butler50c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6228…660bbacked Xavier50c29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe96e…e7bbbacked Xavier50c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbee4…b756backed Xavier50c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf8…754cbacked Butler50c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…0c90backed Butler50c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-65.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb701…3d2abacked Butler50c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…b259backed Xavier50c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cc6…9aa8backed Butler50c28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5b…841cbacked Xavier50c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…aea6backed Xavier50c28$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x678c…648cbacked Xavier50c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf446…bb6cbacked Xavier51c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe626…3eb9backed Butler50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5bb…97d7backed Xavier53c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8df7…6918backed Butler50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8713…0c0abacked Xavier50c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc588…09e7backed Butler50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65b…b93ebacked Butler47c27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68f2…9ac5backed Xavier50c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3647…0972backed Butler50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b8…04eebacked Butler50c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6414…eea6backed Xavier50c27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4145…e907backed Butler50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x666b…c980backed Butler50c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecbb…d500backed Xavier50c26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2493…9876backed Xavier51c26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2371…fe7ebacked Butler49c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc03a…dc56backed Xavier53c26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5610…6fcabacked Butler49c26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5058…8671backed Butler50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9de…40c8backed Xavier50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea49…6850backed Xavier51c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.25366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc956…12c7backed Butler50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab1a…c875backed Butler50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e60…9deebacked Xavier71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…5f62backed Xavier50c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3660…33a1backed Xavier51c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa471…25febacked Xavier50c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x552f…a254backed Xavier56c23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x802f…127cbacked Xavier56c22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x249f…4b51backed Butler50c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-59%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9917…a812backed Xavier70c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x080b…3fbdbacked Xavier50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08af…fbb9backed Xavier71c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7ed…502abacked Xavier70c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…a520backed Xavier71c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd69…693dbacked Xavier71c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x639f…8d21backed Butler69c18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee32…d943backed Xavier71c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.