Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: strongboys vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af1ae43a03eeae60969d56d1d39a520c6fc9321831bb7aa9dcb2ae98db5d268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof strongboys, Yellow Submarine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed strongboys | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7abc…9ff7backed strongboys | 34c | 1,144$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.32 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -5.5wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 831.72$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.69 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yellow Submarine | 73c | 784.39$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.24 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Yellow Submarine | 55c | 399.97$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.98 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed strongboys | 44c | 351.32$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.55 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1b12backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 333.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Yellow Submarine | 56c | 296.42$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.42 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…3906backed strongboys | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed strongboys | 43c | 139.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed strongboys | 31c | 92.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Yellow Submarine | 60c | 78.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed strongboys | 70c | 56.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Yellow Submarine | 58c | 55.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Yellow Submarine | 30c | 51.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Yellow Submarine | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 46.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d06…88d8backed Yellow Submarine | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked strongboys | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…3734backed Yellow Submarine | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Yellow Submarine | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed strongboys | 41c | 34.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Yellow Submarine | 56c | 24.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…703cbacked strongboys | 57c | 22.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a54…f398backed strongboys | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yellow Submarine | 80c | 17.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.