Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Syracuse vs. SMU
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b4196970aa437fa0f1272fb6cb816b606ca08895b06fb622570dee5533e383e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SMUof Syracuse, SMU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Syracuse | 11c | 402$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8b…99a9backed Syracuse | 18c | 242$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…8f1dbacked Syracuse | 12c | 170.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…4e08backed Syracuse | 12c | 167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…7d56backed Syracuse | 12c | 165$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd8…6d0cbacked Syracuse | 13c | 153$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ce…9ef9backed Syracuse | 11c | 121$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ff…a0bfbacked Syracuse | 12c | 115$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…66f4backed Syracuse | 16c | 109$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…3c18backed Syracuse | 12c | 108$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…4b51backed Syracuse | 13c | 107$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1f…a931backed Syracuse | 12c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed SMU | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…d19fbacked Syracuse | 13c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaaf…a50ebacked Syracuse | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…663fbacked SMU | 74c | 73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64bc…a256backed Syracuse | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…5ed4backed Syracuse | 26c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…386abacked Syracuse | 26c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…e9b7backed SMU | 50c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd260…1a70backed Syracuse | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e40…84e5backed Syracuse | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1850…c736backed SMU | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe783…2e45backed SMU | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb58…d2f9backed SMU | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.