Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 on March 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d1048e54156ae736c862ea8d8c53cb09d4d0c652b6d03c7b14c2c4851fa16eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,748 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 61c | 592.27$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.01 | 1,775 | 49%869 W · 906 L | +141.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 42c | 562.93$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.61 | 1,106 | 43.9%486 W · 620 L | +27.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed Yes | 58c | 545$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.75 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 39c | 505.86$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.51 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 40c | 195.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 56c | 41.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 48c | 41.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…6749backed Yes | 68c | 33.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 34c | 30.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…8d8dbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 15.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 on March 11?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 on March 11?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $255 on March 11?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on March 11?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on March 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.