Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Detroit Mercy vs. Green Bay
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4df68b94fae91115fb1e22d768d171bac1c0e0434d131f5286619e8fef6083be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Green Bayof Detroit Mercy, Green Bay
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37ae…5cdfbacked Green Bay | 50c | 94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…79b6backed Green Bay | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Green Bay | 44c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf812…f630backed Detroit Mercy | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…92b1backed Green Bay | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x216c…e0eabacked Detroit Mercy | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9edd…ec79backed Detroit Mercy | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf522…b2c0backed Detroit Mercy | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc7…881abacked Detroit Mercy | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac6…836bbacked Green Bay | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…c91fbacked Green Bay | 50c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 44cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3648…0bedbacked Green Bay | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…0c84backed Detroit Mercy | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c6…0547backed Detroit Mercy | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9035…79e7backed Detroit Mercy | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3a…7c66backed Detroit Mercy | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7b…464bbacked Green Bay | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…16f4backed Green Bay | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb60…ea1dbacked Green Bay | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe043…1c14backed Green Bay | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…5f07backed Green Bay | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…9b84backed Detroit Mercy | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6d…6156backed Green Bay | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…595dbacked Detroit Mercy | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90cf…5613backed Detroit Mercy | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57a…0196backed Green Bay | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.