Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Denver vs. North Dakota State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4df860219000f203bd1218581ef2aa94ed6c6d6db43310781e37d434504b2b93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Dakota Stateof Denver, North Dakota State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Denver | 12c | 812.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6530…2a1abacked North Dakota State | 46c | 292$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…d89fbacked Denver | 54c | 276$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…a2d3backed North Dakota State | 46c | 254$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x534e…a97ebacked Denver | 54c | 239$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…404cbacked Denver | 54c | 171$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…319abacked Denver | 13c | 148$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e21…0631backed Denver | 54c | 126$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…0fc4backed North Dakota State | 46c | 113$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 54cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d5…ff97backed Denver | 54c | 106$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f8…ee9fbacked North Dakota State | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a81…30e8backed North Dakota State | 46c | 96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7311…6b60backed North Dakota State | 50c | 92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…0d6bbacked North Dakota State | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…663fbacked North Dakota State | 46c | 74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…2ce5backed North Dakota State | 46c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 61cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…eaabbacked Denver | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…3ad3backed Denver | 54c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c11…91e9backed Denver | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…ca4fbacked Denver | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…716fbacked North Dakota State | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…d3afbacked North Dakota State | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa334…6b45backed North Dakota State | 46c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…5200backed North Dakota State | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…da0abacked North Dakota State | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…4769backed Denver | 54c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d27…f6a9backed Denver | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedff…f6babacked Denver | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…562bbacked Denver | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…aea1backed Denver | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa10…e484backed Denver | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked North Dakota State | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…e62abacked Denver | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc02d…acacbacked North Dakota State | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…8ae2backed Denver | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.