Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Missouri State vs. Valparaiso
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dfade0c7c40b0df02ae4cb4e4192ae1bc40746ffc76c875d151e311a1939326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Valparaisoof Missouri State, Valparaiso
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Valparaiso | 34c | 606.06$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…48ecbacked Missouri State | 66c | 606.06$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…2eb4backed Missouri State | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Valparaiso | 56c | 227.27$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Valparaiso | 58c | 59.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…18b1backed Missouri State | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…5309backed Missouri State | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5df…97e7backed Missouri State | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…25cfbacked Missouri State | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6e…5f26backed Missouri State | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5097…2dbbbacked Missouri State | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Missouri State | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…69efbacked Valparaiso | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be0…b408backed Missouri State | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe242…066fbacked Missouri State | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb927…c3dbbacked Valparaiso | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…6559backed Valparaiso | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcf…7759backed Valparaiso | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…ecddbacked Missouri State | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b04…dd49backed Missouri State | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…0182backed Missouri State | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc69…a95bbacked Valparaiso | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…4ff0backed Valparaiso | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…b42ebacked Missouri State | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb5…2921backed Missouri State | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6285…4654backed Missouri State | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9c…c9c3backed Valparaiso | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac9…1d9ebacked Valparaiso | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e8…4718backed Missouri State | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…a23bbacked Valparaiso | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…6800backed Valparaiso | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa81…7050backed Valparaiso | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1c…25a4backed Valparaiso | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…3f99backed Valparaiso | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30e…616fbacked Valparaiso | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…29fabacked Valparaiso | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…c344backed Valparaiso | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84be…bef9backed Valparaiso | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd9…e33fbacked Valparaiso | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…3151backed Valparaiso | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…33b3backed Valparaiso | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…db66backed Valparaiso | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…542ebacked Valparaiso | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…f853backed Valparaiso | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b3…84dcbacked Valparaiso | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.