NFL · resolved market
Will Joe Mixon score a touchdown?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4efea3612f4ede1defb672650bf3b7633ffc3f4b8fbedceb26cb9959e587c15a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 57c | 104.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Yes | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 195 | 64.6%126 W · 69 L | +12.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e5…da64backed Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 55c | 31.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…6766backed No | 61c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…1a99backed Yes | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…3dfebacked No | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…af42backed Yes | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…4c1fbacked Yes | 39c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54aa…8fa6backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…cfa8backed No | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…b730backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe73b…262abacked No | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc8…c48ebacked Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd06…e1b1backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…9c8ebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bc…53e5backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ae4fbacked No | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ef…338ebacked No | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…6450backed No | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f50…727dbacked No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…fab7backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4b…2262backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…f3e6backed No | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd294…c140backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…bd65backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa000…f899backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…d243backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d1…335fbacked No | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…c42fbacked No | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e88…c00dbacked No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed1…7802backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…0767backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Joe Mixon score a touchdown?this page
- Will Isiah Pacheco score a touchdown?No won
- Will Travis Kelce score a touchdown?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.