Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Estar Backs (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f71629b2f455a7041602bcdc6d76862bd04dd3e139af27eb4ebdaa1183ec1c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zero Tenacityof Zero Tenacity, Estar Backs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Estar Backs | 19c | 456.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Zero Tenacity | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed Estar Backs | 22c | 190.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Estar Backs | 26c | 144.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…2108backed Zero Tenacity | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Zero Tenacity | 75c | 66.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Zero Tenacity | 56c | 51.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Estar Backs | 40c | 50.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Estar Backs | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Estar Backs | 39c | 39.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…594fbacked Estar Backs | 44c | 37.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Estar Backs | 40c | 26.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.