Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50bc38acd5cab1d825055fc8b8feee62e3e19fc8995e26e14473b901f72d4e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked MOUZ | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 432$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.32 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked MOUZ | 51c | 393.39$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.63 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked MOUZ | 54c | 220$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2e…41a7backed MOUZ | 49c | 102$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 102$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed MOUZ | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked MOUZ | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked MOUZ | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.