CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AUR.YB (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy Black (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x539a94796805dd63ba067c246e3556d7cf57c2d49c62a476bdd0083d89322b60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academy Blackof Aurora Young Blood, Spirit Academy Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Aurora Young Blood | 47c | 648.19$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.41 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Spirit Academy Black | 50c | 603$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.88 | 293 | 40.6%119 W · 174 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Spirit Academy Black | 55c | 450$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.56 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc386…386fbacked Aurora Young Blood | 51c | 405$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.64 | 259 | 44.8%116 W · 143 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Spirit Academy Black | 52c | 345.19$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.69 | 239 | 52.3%125 W · 114 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Aurora Young Blood | 46c | 345$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…a778backed Aurora Young Blood | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 301 | 55.8%168 W · 133 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed Spirit Academy Black | 49c | 70.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Spirit Academy Black | 49c | 29.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AUR.YB (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy Black (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy Black vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar PlayoffsSpirit Academy Black won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy Black vs Aurora Young Blood - Map 1 WinnerAurora Young Blood won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy Black vs Aurora Young Blood - Map 2 WinnerSpirit Academy Black won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.