TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,631 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes17c528.5$90 inLost-$909614.6%14 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc604…6dbabacked Yes17c460.41$78 inLost-$78.272817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes16c424.73$69 inLost-$69.1673215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes12c293.96$34 inLost-$34.3613511.9%16 W · 119 L+0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes17c276.47$47 inLost-$4723314.2%33 W · 200 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc7…e49abacked Yes17c176.47$30 inLost-$305115.7%8 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes15c126.93$18 inLost-$18.421194.2%5 W · 114 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5cc…879cbacked Yes16c125.67$20 inLost-$204117.1%7 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick25cpaid+9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9916…8088backed Yes17c117$20 inLost-$19.893324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes17c99.99$17 inLost-$1732016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc14f…0ee1backed Yes17c76.47$13 inLost-$1316013.8%22 W · 138 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-13.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73b5…e8a3backed Yes18c66.32$12 inLost-$129218.5%17 W · 75 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked No78c60.2$47 inWon+$13.578111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.