Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Porto leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5669abf1f5b912e89f1501c0c200acbe24e8dd06f290d9ada82ceaa8ccfd6fa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,514 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 37c | 2,425$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,525.37 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked No | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 68c | 651.96$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.81 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 67c | 574.12$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.66 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 68c | 529.55$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.79 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 527.93$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.4 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 68c | 297.82$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.52 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7002…395cbacked Yes | 33c | 278.12$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 81 | 17.3%14 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed No | 19c | 193.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed No | 68c | 166.11$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.54 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 67c | 84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 33.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…6c97backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0870…1e49backed No | 69c | 28.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…ade4backed No | 69c | 19.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Porto leading at halftime?this page
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: Draw at halftime?No won
- VfB Stuttgart leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.