Tennis · resolved market
ITF W15 Astana 5 Women: Zeel Desai vs Haruna Arakawa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56aa5a5b8702b58d141bab25ea84b77c3a328fa1f5d8e69b48c2bd342c89a46f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Haruna Arakawaof Zeel Desai, Haruna Arakawa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Zeel Desai | 36c | 772.5$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.8 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Haruna Arakawa | 70c | 429.59$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.59 | 300 | 53.7%161 W · 139 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Haruna Arakawa | 63c | 303.35$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.19 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a62…4ab9backed Zeel Desai | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 145 | 36.6%53 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Zeel Desai | 41c | 260.86$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…4324backed Zeel Desai | 9c | 197.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Haruna Arakawa | 61c | 170$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Zeel Desai | 21c | 134.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Haruna Arakawa | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 282 | 55%155 W · 127 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Haruna Arakawa | 77c | 99.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Haruna Arakawa | 60c | 85.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Haruna Arakawa | 64c | 68.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Zeel Desai | 28c | 35.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Haruna Arakawa | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 408 | 61.3%250 W · 158 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Haruna Arakawa | 55c | 18.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2996…fd9dbacked Haruna Arakawa | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.