Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: strongboys vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x570cce2ff179ff1bfdf29260fc696b12e5cd57a5589e838df899f828b4b000da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of strongboys, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 65c | 1,004$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.52 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…e8b1backed strongboys | 70c | 782.43$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.47 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed strongboys | 41c | 495.12$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Pipsqueak+4 | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed Pipsqueak+4 | 12c | 305.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed strongboys | 5c | 205.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked strongboys | 50c | 200.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed strongboys | 40c | 185.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed strongboys | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked strongboys | 24c | 125.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 76c | 108.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Pipsqueak+4 | 61c | 104.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e30…c14dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 103$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 59c | 69.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…1792backed strongboys | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 137 | 31.4%43 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed strongboys | 25c | 54.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed strongboys | 36c | 53.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Pipsqueak+4 | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 44.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad63…fc1dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed strongboys | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Dota 2: strongboys vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.