Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Montana State vs. Portland State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x575a14d5aa05c15e41484cbf2baeb16a615c90aadd1e19c07c5a9ec164859684
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Portland Stateof Montana State, Portland State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea3…48afbacked Portland State | 56c | 978$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015e…7907backed Montana State | 44c | 767$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +168.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Portland State | 59c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Montana State | 41c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9321…979dbacked Montana State | 44c | 107$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…ffe0backed Montana State | 44c | 104$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce94…7bb0backed Portland State | 56c | 98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x183c…4809backed Montana State | 44c | 67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0b…93fcbacked Montana State | 44c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963f…2fbdbacked Portland State | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe8…676bbacked Montana State | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…f219backed Montana State | 44c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f7…284dbacked Portland State | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…48debacked Portland State | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.