Lol · resolved market
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57dfd4a1c94821fb99701c5016739dcdeb1000ec11832ada6fb9b725539eef31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NightBirdsof NightBirds, eSuba
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9dc…e39ebacked eSuba | 20c | 1,530$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c1…8315backed eSuba | 20c | 1,520$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…14b6backed eSuba | 20c | 1,248$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…df1cbacked eSuba | 20c | 1,069$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be7…d9c6backed NightBirds | 80c | 770$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…5fdabacked NightBirds | 80c | 765$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0792…a44fbacked NightBirds | 80c | 760$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…a20cbacked NightBirds | 80c | 755$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b49…9c03backed eSuba | 22c | 715$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…9209backed NightBirds | 80c | 524$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e3…22c8backed eSuba | 20c | 520$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b61…0cebbacked NightBirds | 80c | 474$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d6…0550backed eSuba | 19c | 398$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…e4debacked NightBirds | 78c | 382$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…aea0backed NightBirds | 78c | 333$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…93c6backed NightBirds | 80c | 269$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd428…100abacked NightBirds | 80c | 251$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…9687backed NightBirds | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…2c59backed NightBirds | 80c | 249$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc090…ec1fbacked NightBirds | 80c | 249$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…20f0backed NightBirds | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…7eafbacked NightBirds | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed eSuba | 21c | 185.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ae…8fbdbacked NightBirds | 80c | 171$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc1…f100backed eSuba | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked eSuba | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | -14.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked eSuba | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 474 | 44.1%209 W · 265 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3275…de1ebacked eSuba | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Group Stagethis page
- LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba - Game 1 WinnerNightBirds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.