NHL · resolved market
KHL: Sibir Novosibirsk vs. Dinamo Minsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5808525794a3bf371c249bf346e99be1961dec5c25cb2299aec2cbbe8e877bb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sibir Novosibirskof Sibir Novosibirsk, Dinamo Minsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 32c | 640$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.2 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Dinamo Minsk | 68c | 349.13$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.28 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f57…05f5backed Dinamo Minsk | 68c | 152.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Dinamo Minsk | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Dinamo Minsk | 16c | 108.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…0979backed Dinamo Minsk | 71c | 71.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca0…7ebebacked Dinamo Minsk | 65c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 62c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 65c | 31.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 896 | 36.9%331 W · 565 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5514…72bdbacked Dinamo Minsk | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef51…f58dbacked Dinamo Minsk | 50c | 24.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…af84backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 73c | 23.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Dinamo Minsk | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Dinamo Minsk | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 124 | 55.6%69 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.