MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Atlanta Braves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x586a36bca91f8f87e8398e0389fe78713150c77b028f1b983161c738bc3fed71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,695 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Atlanta Braves | 59c | 1,656$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.55 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 799$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.23 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Minnesota Twins | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Minnesota Twins | 41c | 609$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.69 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Minnesota Twins | 44c | 576.67$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.21 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 428.92$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.54 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Minnesota Twins | 45c | 316$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.2 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Minnesota Twins | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 283.11$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.31 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 251$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.95 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 217$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 188.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.31 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Atlanta Braves | 56c | 178.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 130$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.72 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 107$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Atlanta Braves | 55c | 107$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Minnesota Twins | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Atlanta Braves | 58c | 89.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Minnesota Twins | 44c | 47.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Minnesota Twins | 43c | 39.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Atlanta Braves | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…84b8backed Minnesota Twins | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,402 | 43.1%604 W · 798 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Atlanta Braves | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.