Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tristan Schoolkate
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58b983995b2f0e3afca40d0d3f9e58f7de7a353a80afb8974ef00b974faa94fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Schoolkateof Sonego, Schoolkate
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Schoolkate | 61c | 4,471$2,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,745.52 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Schoolkate | 26c | 2,677$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,981.99 | 91 | 30.8%28 W · 63 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Sonego | 37c | 2,484$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.47 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Sonego | 71c | 1,450$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.26 | 201 | 55.7%112 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf54…3386backed Schoolkate | 65c | 1,100$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Schoolkate | 47c | 931.42$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.4 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Sonego | 70c | 599.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Schoolkate | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Sonego | 64c | 244.01$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.31 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Schoolkate | 28c | 213.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.68 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Schoolkate | 49c | 180.05$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Schoolkate | 58c | 171.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked Schoolkate | 51c | 111.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Sonego | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed6…a111backed Sonego | 72c | 72.11$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Schoolkate | 75c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d62…b83fbacked Sonego | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 65cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Schoolkate | 28c | 64.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Schoolkate | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +8.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Sonego | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Sonego | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Schoolkate | 78c | 46.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Sonego | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Sonego | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2659…d77ebacked Schoolkate | 33c | 32.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Schoolkate | 47c | 31.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.