Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58cf390116e4e00116b62c081b237014e4283c87330c3382355971481b11e7ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buffaloof Buffalo, Northern Illinois
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Northern Illinois | 51c | 600.92$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.71 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Northern Illinois | 56c | 553.87$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.17 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Buffalo | 44c | 341.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.3 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…2eb4backed Buffalo | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6333…e34bbacked Northern Illinois | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…8ef3backed Buffalo | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d4…10bfbacked Buffalo | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd149…4156backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde12…a72abacked Buffalo | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c2…b254backed Buffalo | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bc…16b8backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1b…c5f9backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4200…ca02backed Northern Illinois | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…f2fdbacked Northern Illinois | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82fe…07b8backed Northern Illinois | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee41…8b1bbacked Buffalo | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f75…2067backed Buffalo | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…cf9ebacked Northern Illinois | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +158.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x111e…b2cbbacked Northern Illinois | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…e84fbacked Buffalo | 50c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cd…d48dbacked Buffalo | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabf…98e2backed Buffalo | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…8646backed Northern Illinois | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c97…362cbacked Buffalo | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…0aa3backed Buffalo | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb1…a4fbbacked Buffalo | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.