Ligue 1 · resolved market
AJ Auxerre vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x590a2ca24fb31c4a42747ef9a545eeb45524357f658ce5ff1c474ce9b92a49af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 1,942$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.42 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 1,327$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.52 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 51c | 1,052$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 49c | 917.78$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.25 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 52c | 769.23$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Over | 55c | 666.67$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.67 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed Over | 45c | 290$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 44c | 133.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…48a0backed Over | 55c | 117.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 51c | 67.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Over | 52c | 38.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 42c | 32.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…852fbacked Over | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AJ Auxerre vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5this page
- AJ Auxerre vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Spread: Olympique de Marseille (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.