Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Milsami Orhei vs. FK Velež Mostar: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59bf3447e0ceb1f6e2ef5b075dd0a9fbc998c8830d9386fa131a6cbe5cc40efd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 1c | 3,084$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 1,529$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.93 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 20c | 1,150$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.94 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 52c | 694$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.12 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 455.61$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.87 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…b9d9backed Over | 25c | 395.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 39c | 329.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.32 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 50c | 268.52$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…4dacbacked Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 42c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 75c | 104.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 24c | 61.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 76c | 51.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…a787backed Over | 63c | 38.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…da2fbacked Under | 57c | 31.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…3d52backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…6cedbacked Under | 66c | 25.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 66c | 21.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 655 | 35.6%233 W · 422 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Milsami Orhei vs. FK Velež Mostar: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Milsami Orhei vs. FK Velež Mostar: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Milsami Orhei vs. FK Velež Mostar: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Milsami Orhei vs. FK Velež Mostar: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Milsami Orhei vs. FK Velež Mostar: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Milsami Orhei vs. FK Velež Mostar: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.