Lol · resolved market
League of Legends: Weibo Gaming vs. Ultra Prime
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a42a4f037b7f728d03fad27beed75e206662b64e10f4c7d4e697ca832d607cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Weibo Gamingof Weibo Gaming, Ultra Prime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Ultra Prime | 3c | 40,243$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.6 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ultra Prime | 2c | 26,627$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.79 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Ultra Prime | 0c | 23,069$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 354 | 31.1%110 W · 244 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked Ultra Prime | 5c | 7,770$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.11 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -13.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Ultra Prime | 5c | 4,900$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 364 | 33.8%123 W · 241 L | -17.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Ultra Prime | 4c | 4,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed Ultra Prime | 1c | 2,075$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…6e04backed Ultra Prime | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Ultra Prime | 6c | 1,155$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Ultra Prime | 6c | 1,111$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 388 | 37.4%145 W · 243 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Ultra Prime | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Ultra Prime | 6c | 1,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,180 | 44.5%525 W · 655 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ultra Prime | 1c | 865.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Ultra Prime | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 488 | 52%254 W · 234 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff0d…5e5ebacked Ultra Prime | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Ultra Prime | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Ultra Prime | 3c | 472.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +12.5wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…564cbacked Ultra Prime | 4c | 393.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 363 | 31.1%113 W · 250 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Ultra Prime | 3c | 364.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Ultra Prime | 5c | 210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.