Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Basel 1893 vs. FCSB: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ac82f19c8004f02e05b76bd26b7b16ad9d288b1560fb8862bd65da9fa7776cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 41c | 2,632$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.32 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 2,382$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.22 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 61c | 1,039$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.83 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Under | 41c | 999.98$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed Under | 39c | 626.65$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.39 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 40c | 470.73$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.23 | 92 | 27.2%25 W · 67 L | -11.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…2692backed Over | 59c | 411.14$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 60c | 50.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…e313backed Under | 42c | 30.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Basel 1893 vs. FCSB: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Basel 1893 vs. FCSB: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: FC Basel 1893 (-0.5)FC Basel 1893 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.