Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Creighton vs. St. John's
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b45c48b4bfb0838ba15aada97d0ebdbc7d71cad8b83d7270305ec2bc1003aa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. John'sof Creighton, St. John's
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Creighton | 10c | 1,074$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Creighton | 43c | 670$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.1 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa219…9fa2backed Creighton | 31c | 251$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Creighton | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7e…4858backed Creighton | 31c | 155$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…94a2backed St. John's | 69c | 114$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Creighton | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…35d1backed St. John's | 69c | 95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…cd8cbacked Creighton | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26d…baf6backed Creighton | 31c | 87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a06…b81bbacked St. John's | 69c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…23d3backed St. John's | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed St. John's | 69c | 73.65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7a…38c7backed St. John's | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…7febbacked Creighton | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Creighton | 28c | 62.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2406…f7adbacked St. John's | 69c | 61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a17…eb81backed St. John's | 69c | 61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 55cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked St. John's | 67c | 60.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86e…c74bbacked Creighton | 31c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3581…f9aebacked St. John's | 69c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed St. John's | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…7d77backed Creighton | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x560a…f991backed St. John's | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a3…024dbacked Creighton | 31c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7338…2d40backed St. John's | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed St. John's | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…1661backed St. John's | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…a03bbacked St. John's | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…e70bbacked St. John's | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.