Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action against Yemen by Monday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c5e8e3c4f09998075f5953ca74791ceb50eed361c78cc7bd7ac480632f7805b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fc1…fa83backed No | 1c | 3,868$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5828…2683backed No | 1c | 1,800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d1…7ee9backed No | 1c | 1,753$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked No | 34c | 808.73$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.91 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…56debacked No | 3c | 606.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 22c | 463.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.53 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80bf…e42ebacked Yes | 42c | 247.47$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.47 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…e0febacked No | 11c | 177.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa779…5772backed No | 55c | 110$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed Yes | 10c | 106.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 72c | 106.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…8d48backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…e2d1backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2b…1298backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +152%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b3…55c7backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…27c6backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf772…36a6backed No | 71c | 32.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed Yes | 38c | 32.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0c…7fc2backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…4131backed No | 77c | 15.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc9…8e04backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.