Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
San Francisco vs. Oregon State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dd303f8b18ad359988f453f0e02766bfcfd08030985d80022b782ce5c32b0a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Franciscoof San Francisco, Oregon State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x801b…8a51backed Oregon State | 60c | 581$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…ba55backed San Francisco | 40c | 447$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 41cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…dc2cbacked San Francisco | 43c | 189$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x794a…19c1backed Oregon State | 57c | 181$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa7…faa0backed Oregon State | 60c | 144$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…3cfbbacked Oregon State | 57c | 115$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…d92cbacked San Francisco | 43c | 93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85f…7b21backed San Francisco | 43c | 84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 36cpaid | +232%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9321…979dbacked Oregon State | 57c | 81$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…e46dbacked San Francisco | 43c | 78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…d2b1backed San Francisco | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…23e7backed San Francisco | 40c | 64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9829…dc34backed Oregon State | 57c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…a03bbacked Oregon State | 61c | 59.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0059…fb24backed San Francisco | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…8ddabacked San Francisco | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked San Francisco | 39c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c96…0e03backed Oregon State | 57c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9988…c469backed San Francisco | 40c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ee…95d0backed San Francisco | 40c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd278…7288backed San Francisco | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1232backed San Francisco | 40c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4782…233dbacked San Francisco | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499a…8f8dbacked San Francisco | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb6…60c2backed San Francisco | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf66…5a2dbacked San Francisco | 40c | 37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…0b77backed Oregon State | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e80…8e21backed Oregon State | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4274…833abacked San Francisco | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…1d99backed Oregon State | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a6…9608backed Oregon State | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fd…b58cbacked Oregon State | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…1232backed San Francisco | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56c…41e1backed Oregon State | 60c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…5608backed Oregon State | 60c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…fbeabacked Oregon State | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1335…99e2backed San Francisco | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea8…0368backed San Francisco | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…589abacked Oregon State | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…2bd9backed Oregon State | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…3af8backed Oregon State | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca45…0e2fbacked Oregon State | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb1…34b9backed Oregon State | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488d…0cf3backed Oregon State | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.