Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5de5b7734c862a614da14313f3eb57d6a3f55e9466c6b413d64fed1670ee8d83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 15c | 28,148$4,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,269.18 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed No | 17c | 7,914$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.33 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 9c | 6,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…0e3ebacked No | 17c | 5,294$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.97 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 18c | 5,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed No | 12c | 2,646$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.46 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +27.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 16c | 2,290$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.47 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 6c | 1,678$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 16c | 1,394$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.47 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed No | 7c | 977.41$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 177 | 45.8%81 W · 96 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 16c | 922.39$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.82 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…d7b7backed No | 17c | 630$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa6…1286backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…356bbacked No | 16c | 299.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d9…ed60backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x389b…f889backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 16c | 94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…415ebacked No | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-04-02?this page
- Will Leicester win on 2025-04-02?No won
- Will Manchester City vs. Leicester end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.