Euroleague · resolved market
Real Madrid vs. Valencia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e236aba8971c8f44c9ee0af4d66c767dc6624cb81f9d529a644375569ccf847
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Madridof Real Madrid, Valencia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Valencia | 30c | 1,175$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.53 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1909…a2c9backed Real Madrid | 77c | 854.42$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Real Madrid | 69c | 800$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Valencia | 44c | 591.59$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.82 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…4fd9backed Real Madrid | 73c | 391.64$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.74 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…3e60backed Real Madrid | 60c | 301$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Valencia | 40c | 284.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.17 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Valencia | 35c | 284.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Real Madrid | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 435 | 43.7%190 W · 245 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Valencia | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234d…a48dbacked Valencia | 33c | 149.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…c9ddbacked Real Madrid | 54c | 128.89$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Real Madrid | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Real Madrid | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Real Madrid | 41c | 72.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…9ec1backed Real Madrid | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Valencia | 49c | 27.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.