Tennis · resolved market
Swedish Open, Qualification: William Vinciguerra vs Lautaro Midon
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f3c9ebc20e1b28bfb00a0cd785e41b9328df73d19deb5559c1a9e002fe5722a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lautaro Midonof William Vinciguerra, Lautaro Midon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ace…c46ebacked William Vinciguerra | 8c | 8,761$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682 | 282 | 21.6%61 W · 221 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed William Vinciguerra | 12c | 6,202$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.63 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed William Vinciguerra | 4c | 4,153$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.58 | 251 | 44.6%112 W · 139 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x320d…f4ebbacked William Vinciguerra | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed William Vinciguerra | 7c | 1,594$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Lautaro Midon | 79c | 1,500$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…5d2bbacked William Vinciguerra | 10c | 624.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…7c89backed William Vinciguerra | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Lautaro Midon | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…01ccbacked Lautaro Midon | 79c | 316.46$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 1,077 | 62.8%676 W · 401 L | -27.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…e212backed William Vinciguerra | 5c | 300.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…22ebbacked William Vinciguerra | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 405 | 27.2%110 W · 295 L | -17.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed William Vinciguerra | 19c | 259.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe214…1283backed William Vinciguerra | 7c | 251.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…ddc0backed William Vinciguerra | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed William Vinciguerra | 7c | 179.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,882 | 35.5%669 W · 1,213 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…82b5backed William Vinciguerra | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39f…8506backed William Vinciguerra | 15c | 93.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…d606backed Lautaro Midon | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 926 | 74.6%691 W · 235 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked William Vinciguerra | 16c | 62.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Swedish Open, Qualification: William Vinciguerra vs Lautaro Midonthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Vinciguerra vs MidonMidon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.