CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #3 Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fba61be2f6a198672305f70674ac2d3404dce60fbf7b8dbde1630a9e4489c81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TNCof Phantom, TNC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,984 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Phantom | 1c | 9,822$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 196 | 52.6%103 W · 93 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Phantom | 5c | 8,945$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0554…3de4backed Phantom | 4c | 3,269$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Phantom | 40c | 1,945$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.75 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…73b0backed Phantom | 79c | 1,886$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.84 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Phantom | 6c | 1,588$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed Phantom | 61c | 1,359$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.84 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…e537backed Phantom | 4c | 1,100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked TNC | 45c | 1,016$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.43 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda1a…3407backed Phantom | 75c | 773$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.75 | 289 | 60.6%175 W · 114 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x649d…ec03backed TNC | 25c | 758.24$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.68 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed TNC | 24c | 729.82$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.75 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…d0f1backed Phantom | 76c | 657.07$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.15 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed TNC | 24c | 599.42$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.51 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed TNC | 33c | 521.83$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.89 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed Phantom | 77c | 452.69$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.72 | 367 | 49.3%181 W · 186 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf1…d4aebacked TNC | 23c | 399.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.99 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…2e51backed Phantom | 77c | 354.55$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Phantom | 6c | 272$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked TNC | 26c | 246$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.04 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed TNC | 36c | 200$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 175 | 46.3%81 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed TNC | 29c | 150$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…935ebacked Phantom | 74c | 126.89$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked TNC | 22c | 108.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.75 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed TNC | 36c | 106.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed TNC | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed TNC | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 275 | 56.4%155 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Phantom | 74c | 90.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed TNC | 31c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked TNC | 28c | 71.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…c865backed Phantom | 74c | 70$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabda…5456backed TNC | 26c | 45.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked TNC | 41c | 44.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed TNC | 46c | 39.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…870ebacked Phantom | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed Phantom | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.