Tennis · resolved market
Hobart International, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Ella Seidel
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fe61559766ff015b94fe0d9af35f4875bb7cf047e05612937f91bf4073d88cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Volynetsof Volynets, Seidel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seidel | 6c | 14,702$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.65 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae90…f6c8backed Volynets | 41c | 4,801$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,809.1 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Seidel | 53c | 4,092$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,151.76 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Seidel | 44c | 1,132$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.08 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Volynets | 56c | 982.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.52 | 872 | 51.1%446 W · 426 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Volynets | 68c | 735.37$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.37 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seidel | 43c | 731.65$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.9 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Seidel | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Volynets | 75c | 510$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.25 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Seidel | 46c | 500$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.17 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Volynets | 52c | 450$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Volynets | 67c | 392.35$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Seidel | 62c | 357.94$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.34 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Seidel | 75c | 316.88$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.71 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Seidel | 46c | 311.25$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Seidel | 61c | 303.53$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.84 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Volynets | 35c | 296.2$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.66 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Volynets | 56c | 270.28$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.92 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…49b3backed Seidel | 43c | 232.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Seidel | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Volynets | 50c | 227$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.41 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Volynets | 39c | 139.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Volynets | 44c | 125.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…db1fbacked Volynets | 70c | 114.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Volynets | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Volynets | 50c | 77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Volynets | 54c | 66.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Seidel | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Volynets | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Volynets | 58c | 37.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…7292backed Seidel | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.