Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: California-San Diego Tritons (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61496e77370cd5ebef21ca9a79d925eaeaf7c531e26944e253be3ccff52ae4bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cal Poly Mustangsof California-San Diego Tritons, Cal Poly Mustangs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $564 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked California-San Diego Tritons | 43c | 176.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 52c | 165.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked California-San Diego Tritons | 46c | 107.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 322 | 46.6%150 W · 172 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed California-San Diego Tritons | 48c | 84.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 48c | 78.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 49c | 56.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cal Poly Mustangs | 65c | 41.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5e…54a1backed California-San Diego Tritons | 52c | 37.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Cal Poly Mustangs | 51c | 29.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: California-San Diego Tritons (-4.5)this page
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. California-San Diego TritonsCalifornia-San Diego Tritons won
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. California-San Diego Tritons: O/U 158.5Under won
- Cal Poly Mustangs vs. California-San Diego Tritons: O/U 160.5Under won
- Spread: California-San Diego Tritons (-5.5)Cal Poly Mustangs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.