Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x629b01c221574df4f522cbe13bdfe0b719c63ff265e2c0649a98fced7680f616
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Ilbirs eSports, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,421 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb557…7f28backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 466.9$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Ilbirs eSports | 29c | 410$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 282.33$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x688e…148dbacked Rune Eaters | 74c | 271.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.68 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Rune Eaters | 60c | 181.97$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Rune Eaters | 56c | 180$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…f78abacked Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 160.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf564…a382backed Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 156.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dec…058cbacked Ilbirs eSports | 39c | 150.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Ilbirs eSports | 15c | 101.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 81.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Rune Eaters | 61c | 78.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 62.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Rune Eaters | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Ilbirs eSports | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Rune Eaters | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Ilbirs eSports | 44c | 35.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…538dbacked Rune Eaters | 71c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Rune Eaters | 65c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +8.3wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Rune Eaters | 63c | 23.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Rune Eaters | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.