Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fils vs Buse
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x635ec7f53a6cc5d4481cdd9b057942974c1272d347a4cae9dccb8f76f2a3162b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buseof Fils, Buse
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Buse | 27c | 3,062$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,235.05 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked Fils | 73c | 2,292$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.35 | 166 | 36.7%61 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f11…5d87backed Fils | 73c | 374.65$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Buse | 63c | 367.13$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.35 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Fils | 80c | 204.46$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.99 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Fils | 73c | 147.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 423 | 44.2%187 W · 236 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Fils | 73c | 102.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…a7bdbacked Buse | 16c | 94.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…9cf1backed Buse | 16c | 93.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Fils | 31c | 86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Fils | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Buse | 27c | 74.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Fils | 73c | 67.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Buse | 23c | 50.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…39f5backed Fils | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Fils | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…b4aebacked Buse | 38c | 28.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fils vs Busethis page
- Fils vs. Buse: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio BuseArthur Fils won
- Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5)Buse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.