Stocks · resolved market
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $3.00 end of April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x642811ccbfb5d6b53c75fb627dc98bfd17cdc678b9d42763570d24e2e56649d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 13c | 1,118$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…68dabacked No | 50c | 212.76$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e74…c002backed No | 50c | 206.86$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…6e75backed No | 50c | 201.96$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…69d1backed No | 50c | 200.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612e…d36ebacked No | 50c | 199.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…57e2backed No | 50c | 198.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…cb1dbacked No | 50c | 197.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc988…c19fbacked No | 50c | 195.75$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…981abacked No | 50c | 195.43$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…a2b7backed No | 50c | 194.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf01…92fabacked No | 50c | 186.28$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…fc32backed No | 50c | 180.54$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…e5babacked No | 50c | 179.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…7c4dbacked No | 50c | 178.21$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bb…4131backed No | 50c | 176.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed No | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $3.00 end of April?this page
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of April?Yes won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $11 end of April?No won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $2.00 end of April?Yes won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $4.00 end of April?Yes won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $5.00 end of April?Yes won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $6.00 end of April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.