Tennis · resolved market
Francavilla: Daniele Rapagnetta vs Max Schoenhaus
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6480f4cee345a87783f04dc71d6544356e77db7e900acf25ab46c07a735671b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Max Schoenhausof Daniele Rapagnetta, Max Schoenhaus
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 17c | 2,037$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.48 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 9c | 1,209$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.77 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Max Schoenhaus | 67c | 539.49$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.07 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Max Schoenhaus | 68c | 332.66$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.45 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…e6a5backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 259 | 57.1%148 W · 111 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 9c | 273.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 15c | 161.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Max Schoenhaus | 69c | 151.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 967 | 55.3%535 W · 432 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x783f…8f90backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 16c | 136.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 128 | 31.3%40 W · 88 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f65…c1d0backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 31c | 118.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 303 | 49.8%151 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 17c | 101.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed Max Schoenhaus | 72c | 100.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Max Schoenhaus | 74c | 91.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…7dffbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 16c | 88.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 144 | 15.3%22 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 32c | 85.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Max Schoenhaus | 70c | 84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 28c | 81.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 19c | 76.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Daniele Rapagnetta | 31c | 70.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Daniele Rapagnetta | 21c | 68.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Max Schoenhaus | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Max Schoenhaus | 67c | 24.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Max Schoenhaus | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.