Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Texas State Bobcats
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x676192cbe26957a7f2820f8d8036c681f1ca23ba2e0c0014d6de4c828d452f24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas State Bobcatsof Abilene Christian Wildcats, Texas State Bobcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Abilene Christian Wildcats | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas State Bobcats | 52c | 3,722$1,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,786.65 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Abilene Christian Wildcats | 46c | 312$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.59 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Texas State Bobcats | 55c | 276$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcba8…11a2backed Texas State Bobcats | 55c | 184.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.57 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Texas State Bobcats | 54c | 119.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Texas State Bobcats | 53c | 111.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 132 | 27.3%36 W · 96 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Abilene Christian Wildcats | 15c | 100.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Texas State Bobcats | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…1d1dbacked Abilene Christian Wildcats | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Texas State Bobcats | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Abilene Christian Wildcats | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Texas State Bobcats | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.